Klotzbach-Gray: 9 hurricanes this season
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season should be significantly busier than normal, with 18 named storms, including nine hurricanes, with four of those being major.
That’s according to storm prognosticators Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, who released their early predictions today.
The two Colorado State University climatologists say the tropical Atlantic has warmed over the past several months. Further, they say El Niño, the atmospheric force that inhibits storm formation, is unlikely to emerge this year.
“Typically, El Nino is associated with stronger vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions less conducive for storm formation,” Klotzbach said.
Hurricane season starts on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The average season sees 12 named storms, including six hurricanes, three major.
Last April, Klotzbach and Gray predicted the 2012 season would be considerably slower than normal, with 10 named storms, including four hurricanes. Like other prediction teams, they thought El Niño would arise by the heart of the season.
However, it didn’t, and the year ended with 19 named storms, including 10 hurricanes. That made it the third busiest season on record, tied with 1887, 1995, 2010 and 2011.
As part of their forecast, Klotzbach and Gray put the odds of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, at 48 percent. The long-term average is 31 percent.
They put the odds of at least one major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline at 72 percent. The long-term average is 52 percent.
And they put the chances of a major hurricane striking the the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, at 47 percent. The long-term average is 30 percent.
Florida, by far the most storm battered state in the nation, has escaped seeing a hurricane hit for a record seven seasons, since Wilma struck the state’s southwest coast as a Category 3 system and plowed over South Florida as a Category 2 in October 2005.
“All vulnerable coastal residents should make the same hurricane preparations every year, regardless of how active or inactive the seasonal forecast is,” Klotzbach said. “It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season.”
Hurricane season 2013
